The 2026 Migration Report: Who Is Moving to Charlotte, St. Louis & Naples, and Why It Matters to You

I moved my own practice from St. Louis to Charlotte in May of this year, so I feel every chapter of this story personally. Migration is not a spreadsheet exercise to me, it is the rhythm of real life: a new job, a growing family, an empty nest, a fresh start. And in 2026, the migration map of the three states I work in has never been more interesting, or more useful to anyone making a housing decision.

Here is the honest summary before we go deep. Charlotte is the inbound capital, pulling record numbers of new residents and corporate relocations. St. Louis is the affordability magnet, quietly gaining population for the first time in a generation while prices stay sane. And Naples is the market in transition, where national trends are reshaping who buys, who sells, and which properties move fastest. If you understand those three stories, you understand where your best opportunities are this fall.

Twenty years in this business taught me one thing about forecasts: the smartest leading indicator is not the last month of sales, it is the people. People moving in brings demand for housing, schools, and services for years. People staying put, and leaving, tells you where supply will build. So let us start with the national picture, then go market by market, and finish with a relocator's checklist you can use this week.

01 -- Why the Migration Map Is the Best Real Estate Forecast There Is

First, the money backdrop, because none of this happens in a vacuum. Thirty-year mortgage rates are sitting in the low-to-mid 6% range, and both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association see them holding near 6.1% to 6.3% through the rest of 2026. That is not the 3% world of 2021. It means buyers are payment-driven, terms matter as much as price, and the people who are out there looking are serious.

In that environment, migration data becomes decisive. When a metro is adding people faster than it adds homes, prices hold even with higher rates. When a market is losing would-be buyers, inventory stacks up no matter what the national headlines say. That is exactly why the 2025 and 2026 census, moving-truck, and job-recruitment numbers matter so much. They tell you which of my three markets has the wind at its back, and which one needs a smarter strategy.

One more thing that frames everything below. Across the country, September and October are historically the best deal-making months of the year. Sellers who missed the summer window are ready to negotiate, and buyers who stayed patient finally have choices. The migration picture tells you where the pressure points are. The calendar tells you how to time the move. Used together, they are a real advantage.

02 -- Charlotte: The Inbound Capital

Let me lead with the number that still amazes me. Between July 2024 and July 2025, the city of Charlotte added roughly 20,700 residents, the largest numeric population gain of any major U.S. city in that period. U-Haul ranked the Charlotte metro the fourth fastest-growing destination in the country in its 2025 Growth Index, and North Carolina ranked first for domestic migration in 2026. This is not a blip. It is a decade-long trend that keeps compounding.

The job engine behind it is real. 2025 was Charlotte's best year for corporate recruitment in a decade, with the city and county announcing 15 projects bringing nearly 3,900 new jobs. Scout Motors, Capital Group, Maersk, EG Group, and PSA Airlines all chose the region, layered on top of the banking sector that anchors the city and the newer energy, manufacturing, and data-center wave. When companies like these move in, they bring people, and those people need homes.

Here is what that demand looks like in the sales data. The median sale price has settled around $415,000 in recent months, up a modest few percent year over year, a very different pace from the double-digit jumps of 2021 to 2023. Inventory is climbing, active listings are up roughly 19% from a year ago, but supply still sits near 2.4 months, well below the six-month mark that signals a balanced market. Homes priced under about $375,000 are still the tightest segment and sell fastest, while luxury homes over $1 million have six months or more of inventory and real room for negotiation.

What This Means for Charlotte Buyers

You have more choices and more negotiating room than a year ago, especially above $500,000. Use it. Ask for closing cost help, request a rate buydown, and do not be shy about builder incentives in new communities. If you are shopping under $375,000, move fast on the right home, but let an agent run a true comp analysis before you overreach; the price is still negotiable even when the inventory is tight.

What This Means for Charlotte Sellers

Your advantage is the buyer pool. Record in-migration means serious, financed buyers arrive every single week. But with inventory up 19%, you cannot coast on the listing. Price within the comps on day one, stage the home properly, and get professional photos. The homes that sit are the ones priced like last spring. The homes that sell in days are priced for this fall.

03 -- St. Louis: The Affordability Magnet

St. Louis's story is the quiet comeback, and I love telling it because this is the market I know longest. The metro gained an estimated 3,000 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, its third straight year of population growth, and regional planners say it posted its smallest net domestic out-migration since at least 1990. Roughly two-thirds of the people moving here are staying within the metro, a sign of a healthy, self-sustaining market.

The outside interest is real too. Realtor.com named St. Louis an emerging market heading into 2026, and midyear moving data shows Gen Z movers arriving from Kansas City and Boomers arriving from Milwaukee. The draw is the same thing that has always made Missouri great: you can buy a family home at a fraction of the price of the coasts, with a stable employment base in aerospace, biosciences, and finance.

Now the sales picture, and it has two very different faces. The wider metro median listing price sits around $290,000, with roughly 6,300 active listings, up about 10% year over year, and homes taking a bit longer to sell. But St. Louis County is the strong player: the median sale price there is about $312,000, up roughly 3.6% year over year, and homes are going under contract in about 11 days. The city proper holds its own around $250,000, still up about 4% year over year. In short, well-priced homes in good locations are moving fast, while overpriced or dated inventory lingers.

What This Means for St. Louis Buyers

This is one of the last true value markets in the country, and first-time buyers should treat it as an opportunity. A $250,000 to $300,000 budget buys a lot of house here, and the county's quick-selling neighborhoods reward buyers who are pre-approved and ready to write an offer the day they find the one. Do not wait for a bargain that never comes; the best homes in St. Louis County sell in under two weeks.

What This Means for St. Louis Sellers

Price it right and you still win. The county data proves buyers will move fast on a correctly priced home in a desirable neighborhood. But with metro inventory up about 10%, the days of listing high and waiting are over. Invest in the fixes that show up on inspection, price within a 1% to 2% band of the comps, and your home will sell quickly. Price it like it is 2022 and it will sit, and sitting costs you money every single month.

04 -- Naples: The Market in Transition

Naples is where the national migration story gets genuinely complicated, and I want to give it to you straight because clients deserve honesty over hype. Florida's net retiree in-migration collapsed to just 815 people in 2025, a staggering drop, as the so-called halfback trend pushes some retirees from Florida toward South Carolina, Tennessee, and other lower-cost states. Rising insurance premiums, HOA fees, and the overall cost of living are real headwinds, and they are showing up in the data.

But here is the other side of the coin, because markets are never one note. International arrivals to Collier County jumped roughly 274% compared with pre-pandemic levels, with more than 13,000 driver's license exchanges in 2025 alone. Florida still recorded more inbound moves among buyers 65 and older, about 45,700, than any other state. And the luxury tier of Naples, homes over $2 million, remains genuinely strong, with around two-thirds of those sales paid in cash.

The market data shows that two-tier reality clearly. The overall median closed price hovers around $600,000, with single-family homes around $745,000 and condos around $400,000 and softening. Inventory is the real story: roughly 6.6 months of supply in single-family, and about 8.8 months in condos, with homes sitting 70 to 112 days on average. Insurance is a top-line cost too, with premium homeowners in Naples paying $20,000 to $25,000 a year, about four times the national average.

What This Means for Naples Buyers

September and October are your sweet spot, before the seasonal snowbirds return. Condo buyers have genuine leverage right now, this is a correction you can negotiate within, so ask for price adjustments and closing help. For everyone, do your insurance homework before you fall in love: get a premium quote on the specific property, not a neighborhood average, and factor it into your monthly budget. A home can look affordable and cost you dearly if the policies do not pencil out.

What This Means for Naples Sellers

Reality first: this is not the sellers' market of 2021, and in the condo tier especially, price discipline wins. Overpricing in an 8.8-month-supply market just adds weeks of days-on-market and eventually a lower price anyway. What still works is the premium buyer: cash-heavy, quality-focused, often international or relocating in. Present a turnkey, well-maintained home with current insurance options documented, and you will still attract the strongest buyers in a competitive field.

05 -- What the Migration Map Means for You, the Relocator

If you are weighing a move between these three markets, you are in good company: I did it myself this year, moving my home and my practice from St. Louis to Charlotte. I also hold active broker credentials in all three states, so I have watched this exact decision from both sides of the moving truck. Here is the practical plan.

Start 90 to 120 Days Before Your Target Move Date

Every system takes longer than you think: school enrollment, vehicle registration, utilities, mortgage underwriting, title work. I learned that the hard way in my own move, twice over, because selling and buying on different clocks means you plan for both. Give yourself a full season, not a few weeks.

Choose Your Neighborhood Before You Choose Your Home

Charlotte, St. Louis, and Naples are each collections of villages, and the right village is personal. Charlotte has Ballantyne, Dilworth, South End, Waxhaw, Mount Holly, and more. St. Louis has the city neighborhoods and the county suburbs like Clayton and Chesterfield. Naples spans the beach condos, the golf communities, and the new developments to the east and north. Spend your early weeks touring neighborhoods, not just homes.

Work With a Broker Licensed in Both Your States

The purchase contracts in North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida are genuinely different, and North Carolina's due diligence system surprises newcomers the most. One broker who understands your home market and your destination market saves you from miscommunication at the exact moment you can least afford it: your closing date.

Talk to a CPA About the Tax Side of the Move

Florida has no state income tax. North Carolina and Missouri both do. That difference can shift your net proceeds by thousands of dollars, so plan for it before you commit, not after. A good CPA who understands multi-state moves is worth every penny during a relocation year.

Time Your Move to the Market

Charlotte buyers find balance and negotiation room this fall. St. Louis buyers find value and fast-moving county inventory. Naples buyers find their best deals before the seasonal crowds return in November. Whatever your destination, this fall is a genuinely good window to make the move count, and the migration data above tells you why.

One advantage I am proud to offer my relocating clients: I hold active credentials in North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida, so the same advocate who understands where you are coming from also knows exactly where you are going. That continuity protects your timeline, your equity, and your peace of mind, all of which matter most during a big life transition.

Sources

Market data and migration figures sourced from publicly available reports as of September 2026. Figures vary by month and geography; treat them as directional.

• Charlotte Housing Market Opens 2026 with Steady Demand as Inventory Grows: Canopy Realtors
• The State of the Charlotte Market: Opendoor
• Companies Moving to Charlotte NC in 2025-2026: Dante Pinto Realty
• U-Haul Study: Charlotte Ranked #4 Fastest-Growing Metro Area: Charlotte Observer
• Where People Are Relocating in Charlotte NC and Why (2026): The Longleaf Group
• St. Louis Home Prices and Housing Market, June 2026: eMetropolitan
• St. Louis County, MO Housing Market: House Prices and Trends: Redfin
• St. Louis Housing Market 2026: Houzeo
• Where We Stand: 9th Edition, Population Estimates: East-West Gateway Council of Governments
• St. Louis Region Sees Largest Population Growth Since 2010: St. Louis Public Radio
• Naples Real Estate Market Report, 2026: Realty of Naples
• Naples Housing Market Report, July 2026: NaplesEd Realty
• Naples, FL Housing Market: 2026 Home Prices and Trends: Zillow
• Florida's Outmigration and the Naples Housing Market: NaplesEd Realty
• Retirees Leaving Florida: The Halfback Trend Explained: Property Exemption
• How Florida's Soaring Insurance Premiums Are Reshaping Affordability: NaplesEd Realty
• The New Retirement Map: Where Retirement-Age Americans Moved in 2025: HireAHelper
• 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast: US News

20 years of expertise. Dual Metro. Same unstoppable results.
-- Tracey De Simon