Tracey De Simon Monogram Logo
Tracey De Simon
Coldwell Banker Realty
Market Insight • • 11 min read

Election Season Is Here: What the November Midterms Do (and Don't Do) to Your Housing Market

The short answer is that the November 3 midterms will not move home prices, but they will almost certainly slow the pace of home sales for a few weeks, and that pause is one of the best openings of the fall for a prepared buyer. History is remarkably consistent on this: sales dip modestly around Election Day in election years, then rebound in December, while prices keep climbing at their normal rate. Here is the data, where Charlotte, St. Louis, and Naples actually stand right now, and exactly what I would do between today and Election Day.

A quiet tree-lined American suburban street in early autumn, fall leaves dropping from maples, a small American flag on one front porch, warm late-afternoon light

Every four years I get the same question from clients, and every four years the answer is the same, because the data keeps confirming it. Elections do not crash housing markets, and midterms never have. What they do is change timing. Buyers get cautious for a few weeks, sellers hold their breath, the volume of sales dips, and then the market exhales and gets back to work. The mistake is treating the pause as a signal about prices, when it is really just a calendar event. Twenty years in this business across three states has taught me that the people who recognize the pause for what it is, a temporary lull in an otherwise functioning market, tend to be the ones who get the better deal. Let me show you the numbers, then the plan.

01 -- What the Data Actually Says About Elections and Home Sales

Study after study, going back decades, finds the same pattern. Home sales slow slightly in the weeks before a national election, then bounce back quickly after. Meyer's Research, looking at the last 13 presidential election years, found median new-home sales fell about 15 percent between October and November, a larger drop than the normal seasonal decline in non-election years. Surveys point at the same behavior: in one Redfin survey, roughly 23 percent of first-time buyers said they were waiting until after the election to buy. People pause. It is a real, measurable, predictable effect.

What does not happen is any lasting damage. Home sales increased the year after 9 of the last 11 presidential elections, using NAR and HUD data compiled by the National Association of REALTORS, and other analyst work shows sales rose in the year after an election about 80 percent of the time. The dip is a few weeks long; the rebound is a season long. And prices barely blink: a Bankrate analysis of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index since 1987 found home prices rose about 4.8 percent in election years versus about 4.4 percent in non-election years. In other words, election years have historically been a slightly better time for appreciation, not a worse one, because the pause simply defers demand rather than destroying it.

The Election Effect, in Three Bullet Points
  • Sales dip: roughly 15% fewer new-home sales from October to November in past election years (Meyer's Research), with the dip centered on the weeks before the vote.
  • Prices don't: election-year appreciation averaged about 4.8% since 1987 versus about 4.4% in non-election years (Bankrate / Case-Shiller), a difference that rounds to zero.
  • Then it rebounds: sales rose the year after 9 of the last 11 elections, and the first wave of deferred buyers typically shows up in December and January.

One honest caveat before we go further: most of the public research pools midterm and presidential election years together, so the exact week-by-week numbers are fuzzier than I wish. But the direction is consistent in every study I have read in two decades of watching this, and it matches what I have personally seen on the ground in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. The pause is real, it is short, and it is survivable. Better: for the prepared, it is profitable.

02 -- Where the Three Markets Stand This October

Rates frame everything about the next eight weeks. The 30-year fixed crossed back above 7 percent in late September: Freddie Mac's weekly survey averaged 7.03 percent for the week ending September 24, up from 6.95 percent the week before, with some daily measures climbing past 7.3 percent before settling. That follows the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 decision to raise its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023, and forecasters expect no meaningful relief through the end of the year. So here is the honest setup: rates are high, stable, and plan-able, all three markets are balanced enough to negotiate in, and the election pause is landing right on top of the best buying window of the season.

Charlotte at a Glance
  • Median sales price: about $410,000, up 1.1% year over year (Canopy MLS, Charlotte region, July 2026); the city proper ran near $430,000 with days on market around 52 (Redfin).
  • Active inventory: roughly 13,600 homes for sale, up about 7% year over year, the most selection in years.
  • Months of supply: about 3.7, up from a year ago and moving toward the 6-month balanced benchmark.
  • Close to list: the typical seller closed around 96% of the original asking price, a number that rewards realistic pricing.
  • The takeaway: Charlotte is balanced enough that a few weeks of election distraction gives buyers genuine talking power, and sellers who price to closed sales still get offers.
Greater St. Louis at a Glance
  • Median sales price: about $340,000 for St. Louis City and County single-family homes, up 6.6% year over year (St. Louis REALTORS, July 2026).
  • Active listings: roughly 5,850 single-family homes across the City and County, up about 13% to 15% year over year.
  • Months of supply: about 3.5 in the City but only around 2.3 in the County, a genuinely two-speed market.
  • Pending sales: down about 6.3% year over year, a reminder that buyer caution is already part of the picture.
  • The takeaway: still the value leader of my three markets, and the most affordable place in this entire article to put the election pause to work for you.
Naples at a Glance
  • Median closed price: about $575,000 overall, down 1.7% year over year (NABOR, August 2026, released late September).
  • Single-family: about $717,500; condos roughly $400,000 and softer, keeping the two-tier market intact.
  • Active inventory: about 4,415 homes, down roughly a third from a year ago as the seasonal buyers returned.
  • Months of supply: about 5.4, down 33% year over year from roughly 8.1, tightening toward the balanced line.
  • The takeaway: the correction has given way to a firmer, seasonal market. Days on market have shortened to about 99, closed sales are up, and the serious buyers are already booking their season.

Put the three together and the October picture is clean. Balanced inventory in every metro, rates above 7 percent capping how far prices can run, and an election pause arriving exactly when the calendar would normally turn quiet anyway. That combination does not happen often, and it tends to be brief. Buyers who are ready in the two weeks before November 3 will be negotiating against a thinner, more serious field. The ones who wait for the results will be negotiating against everyone who has been waiting all year.

03 -- For Buyers: The Election Pause Is Your Friend

I know exactly what the headlines do to your head this time of year. Every news cycle is election news, and it is easy to convince yourself that waiting six more weeks will bring clarity, that prices will soften, that the results will somehow change the mortgage rate in your favor. Here is the honest truth from the data: none of that is coming. Prices do not drop because of midterms. Rates are not waiting on the returns. What actually happens is January, when the deferred buyers and the deferred inventory show up at the same time and the leverage you have right now quietly evaporates. The pause is the opportunity, not the obstacle.

First, get your pre-approval done this week. The math is simple. A typical purchase runs 30 to 45 days from ratified contract to closing. Offers written in the two weeks before Election Day close in early to mid-December, comfortably ahead of the holiday slowdown. Every week of delay pushes you into January, where you will have more homes to see, more company at every showing, and sellers who set asking prices on January optimism. If the payment fits, the neighborhood fits, and the house fits, the election is not a reason to wait. It is a reason to move before the crowd does.

Second, put the buyer's payment question on the table in writing. At 7 percent and change, a seller-paid rate buydown or closing cost credit is often worth more to you than the same money taken off the price, and it frequently costs the seller about the same while protecting their recorded sale price. In Charlotte's 3.7-month-supply market, and in the condo segments of Naples where the median is down nearly 5 percent on the year, this is one of the first things I ask for. Ask for it in writing on every offer, because the answer costs nothing and the silence costs real money.

Third, shop where the leverage is deepest. In Charlotte that means townhomes, condos, and new construction in Steele Creek, the River District, and the northern suburbs, where builders are still competing with incentives. In St. Louis it means the City, where months of supply runs about a month higher than the County and prices run about a hundred thousand dollars below the metro median, plus the inner-ring suburbs with fresh inventory. In Naples it means condos, where the softer segment meets the returning season and sellers are the ones making the accommodations.

Fourth, does the Fed change any of this? Not for your timeline. The September rate hike was already baked into the late-September move above 7 percent, and forecasters see no cuts for the rest of 2026. That means the rate you lock in October is essentially the rate you would get in January, except January brings more buyers. Lock when you are comfortable, ask about a float-down option in case the market dips, and stop waiting for a headline that is not coming.

The Buyer's Pre-Election Checklist
  • Pre-approval in hand this week, with a lender who can close in 30 to 45 days.
  • Target offers in the two weeks before November 3, when the field is thinnest, and close in early to mid-December.
  • Ask for a float-down option when you lock, so a rate dip before closing still helps you.
  • Write the concession ask into every offer: buydown, closing credit, or points, in writing.
  • Compare three lenders' Loan Estimates and negotiate the total cost, not just the rate.

04 -- For Sellers: List Into the Pause, or Plan Around It

Sellers, here is the straight talk, because you deserve it. The election does not hurt your price. It hurts your foot traffic for about three weeks, and only if you let the calendar surprise you. The best move is usually to list now, in the calm before the pause, so your home is freshly on the market with real showings behind it by the time the news cycle takes over. A home that has been live for two or three weeks by Election Day is still new to the buyers who matter, and the serious ones do not disappear for three weeks; they just move more quietly.

Price from closed sales, not from your neighbor's ask. This rule does not change in an election year. In Charlotte the typical seller closes at about 96 percent of asking, which means the list price you choose on day one is the number you are negotiating down from. A home priced to the last ninety days of closed comps attracts real showings and real offers. An overpriced home that sits through the election lull, then drops in December while the deferred buyers return, is negotiating from weakness in front of a crowd. I have watched this pattern for two decades. It does not reverse.

Plan to help the buyer's payment, not just the price. Every half point of rate costs a buyer roughly five percent of purchasing power, so a seller contribution toward a buydown or closing costs often unlocks the exact buyer who is ready to say yes, and it is usually cheaper than a price cut. In St. Louis, where well-priced homes still attract multiple offers and often close in under three weeks, a modest credit can create competition rather than erode your net. In Naples, price the home for the season that is arriving, not the quiet summer behind you, and be dressed and photographed before the first serious snowbird weekend of November.

Should you wait for the new year instead? It is a legitimate question, and here is the honest math. January brings a flood of fresh inventory, sellers priced on spring optimism, and the election waiters returning all at once. If your home shows better in spring light and your timeline allows it, waiting is a defensible strategy. But if you are selling because life changed, because the next home is already under contract, or because carrying two payments is not sustainable, the thinner October and November field is your friend, not your enemy. The December rebound is real, and it rewards the homes that were priced right and standing ready when it arrived.

The Seller's Pre-Election Checklist
  • Price to closed comps from the last 90 days, first day, no exceptions.
  • Stage, declutter, and photograph now, so your story is told before the news cycle takes the oxygen.
  • Decide your concession budget up front: buydown, closing credit, or a rate points contribution.
  • List by mid-October to be established before the pause, or commit to the January reset and price accordingly.
  • In Naples, be ready before Thanksgiving; the season's serious buyers are already booking their flights.

05 -- For Relocators: The Real Story Is Jobs, Not the Election

Relocators, you can mostly ignore the midterm chatter, because your decision is driven by jobs, schools, and commutes, and the job news in all three of my metros has been genuinely strong this month. The election will not change where your employer is headquartered, but these announcements might change your timeline.

Charlotte: on September 29, Governor Josh Stein joined Daimler Truck Financial Services at the ribbon-cutting of its new North American headquarters in Ballantyne, an investment of roughly $8 million bringing 276 jobs to Mecklenburg County, with Capital Group's East Coast operations hub highlighted in the same visit. That lands on top of September 17 news that the Women's Tennis Association Finals and headquarters are coming to Mecklenburg County, joining SMBC Group's second North American headquarters with about 2,000 jobs. For a relocator, the translation is simple: this is a city adding jobs faster than it adds housing, which is exactly why asking prices hold even as inventory grows.

Greater St. Louis: on September 29, King Technology, a Minnesota-based water-care manufacturer, announced a $17 million manufacturing and distribution center in St. Peters, its first expansion outside Minnesota and a new national distribution hub for the region. Late September also brought expanded British Airways service between St. Louis and London, on top of Boeing's Defense, Space & Security headquarters continuing to hire across the metro. For relocators, St. Louis remains the value play of my three markets, and the two-speed inventory picture means City buyers have room while County suburbs still move quickly.

Naples: the anchor remains Arthrex's expansion in North Naples, announced this spring with 560 new jobs and a $63 million-plus investment in one of Florida's fastest-growing job markets. And the biggest quality-of-life story for relocated families is finally arriving: the Naples Airport Authority is moving toward scheduled commercial service starting December 2, with a direct line to Charlotte planned, the first scheduled flights out of Naples Airport since 2017. If you have been weighing a two-metro life between Charlotte and Naples, that single development makes the decision dramatically easier, and it is timed perfectly for the season.

The Relocator's Pre-Election Checklist
  • Decide your metro in October if you want a 2026 closing, and get pre-approved in the destination state.
  • Model the full monthly cost, not just the mortgage: property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and the income tax difference between your states.
  • Ask your employer about relocation help up front: rate buydowns, buyout programs, temporary housing, moving allowances.
  • Plan around the December 2 Naples-to-Charlotte nonstop if you are coordinating a two-metro family.
  • Work with a broker licensed in NC, MO, and FL so contract, tax, and timing questions get one answer instead of three.

06 -- The Bottom Line, in Plain English

Here is everything above in three sentences. The election does not move home prices, it moves timing: expect a short, shallow dip in sales volume in the weeks around November 3, then a genuine rebound in December, in every one of my markets. Rates sit above 7 percent and are going nowhere fast, which means the buyers and sellers who act with a plan in the next two weeks will be working from strength while everyone else waits for a clarity that does not exist. And for relocators, the news that actually matters is the jobs story, and it is loud in Charlotte, St. Louis, and Naples right now.

This is the part of my job I love most: sitting down with a client, bringing the data and the calendar to the table, and showing them that what looks like a reason to wait, an election, a rate headline, a busy season, is often a reason to act. I have advocated for buyers and sellers through twenty years of this business, through every kind of market, and I treat every client like family, because that is how this should feel. If you are wondering whether your move should wait until after Tuesday, November 3, bring me the question. We will look at your timeline, run the actual numbers, and decide together, free, with no pressure and no obligation. That is what the next hour is for.

Wondering Whether Your Move Can Wait for the Election?

Let us put your timeline and your numbers on the table together over a free consultation. Whether you are buying, selling, or relocating across state lines, you will leave with a clear plan for the next eight weeks and no pressure, just honest answers from a 20-year broker licensed in NC, MO, and FL.

Book Your Free Consultation

Sources

Market data and forecasts compiled from publicly available reports as of September 30, 2026. Figures vary by source, neighborhood, and price band. This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice.